The UP elections-a psephologist's nightmare

People closely following the UP elections on the mainstream English media must be wondering why they got it horribly wrong despite their claims of large sample sizes and the like. Even the major national parties like the BJP and the Congress were at a loss for words when asked about the reasons for Mayawati's landslide win. A better understanding of the concept of critical mass helps explain the reasons for the failure of the national parties in UP.

Critical mass as a phenomenon starts to work when people base their decisions on the opinions or views of the others around them. Critical mass is often a winner takes all scenario and therefore both parties and companies need to understand what they need to do in order to achieve a point of critical mass beyond which there is a decisive movement in their favour-often a point described as an unstable equilibrium. In order to build up the momentum to achieve a critical mass, parties need to have a large proportion of die hard supporters which helps them turn other people into trying the product or policy. The BJP which once had the upper castes as their die hard supporters sadly seems to have lost the game this time with the BSP making inroads. The Congress has never had a die hard support base since their loss in 1989. This made it extremely difficult for both these parties to reach critical mass as they had to convert a larger number of undecided voters. The BSP and the SP however had their captive Dalit and Yadav votebanks that helped them reach critical mass easily.

The second important feature of the critical mass game is the extent of hate voters you have in the population. These are voters who are unwilling to try your party irrespective of your formulation. The BJP lost the game here as well with their Anti-Muslim rhetoric. Though the Congress didn't have too many hate voters, they were simply not seen as a viable alternative to the SP with the result being the BSP gaining. Both the Congress and the BJP need to introspect to see what they can do to change the rules of the game in their favour. The BJP can try a Centre-right approach for a start surely instead of clinging on to Hindutva.

The Presidential election

I am not sure how many people are following the Presidential election in India right now but it soon seems to be turning into a huge farce. To put things into perspective, the whole issue snowballed out of proportion when Mr.APJ Abdul Kalam was being touted in the media as the favourite choice of most of the people in India. People also felt that they needed an apolitical person if he wasn't re-elected. However the behaviour of the politicians in India needs serious introspection on our part.

First the Left parties were opposed to him on reasons that they could not articulate very well. This is despite the fact that he is a figure respected by many in the World and is admired almost everywhere he goes. He is a scholar on the Gita and is a Muslim by birth. Surely this must have been enough for the so called secular alliance to re-nominate him as the President. However the Left has shown that they are no better than others they claim to despise when protecting their vested interests(read Somnath Chatterjee). Surely a divisive figure such as Somnath who doesn't enjoy the support of the BJP shouldn't be foisted upon the country as a President if the Left believes that the President should be one who unites the country.

But Congress showed yesterday that they could stoop to much lower levels than the Left when they proposed Pranab Mukherjee, Sushil Kumar Shinde(Who?) and Karan Singh as candidates for the presidency. If you look at these candidates, does anyone in India think these honourable gentlemen have the stature to be the President of India? The next name that the Left will throw out is Jyoti Basu- a nonagenarian non-entity. This Presidential election was a chance for all the major parties to prove that they respected the wishes of the Indian people. Alas the Congress and the Left have shown that they are not holier than the BJP when it comes to petty politics.

UPA's non-performance under Manmohan Singh

The events of the past few months must have been distressing to a lot of Indians especially the way the UPA government has handled the issues of price rise and OBC reservations. I was recently watching an interview with Mr.A.B.Bardhan- CPI's general secretary who said that it was time for the Left to reconsider their support to the UPA government. Its been 3 years since the UPA came to power on the plank of doing something for the Aam Aadmi. The Left's discomfort is understandable considering the fact that they have a constituency to defend especially with the General elections in 2 years time. This is the right time for them to start the process and expect the process to end sometime later next year.

What is however appalling is the way UPA is still running the government without doing anything in the last few months. If the Aam Aadmi is not too happy with the increase in prices and the UPA allies are also not exactly ecstatic about its performance, Isn't it time for the PM to resign? Or does it mean that he wants to go on like this forever? What is especially troubling is his inability to influence even a spent force like Arjun Singh from shooting off his mouth on issues that require serious debate. India will do better to have its PM on the list of Time's most influential persons rather than the President of his party.