The UP elections-a psephologist's nightmare

People closely following the UP elections on the mainstream English media must be wondering why they got it horribly wrong despite their claims of large sample sizes and the like. Even the major national parties like the BJP and the Congress were at a loss for words when asked about the reasons for Mayawati's landslide win. A better understanding of the concept of critical mass helps explain the reasons for the failure of the national parties in UP.

Critical mass as a phenomenon starts to work when people base their decisions on the opinions or views of the others around them. Critical mass is often a winner takes all scenario and therefore both parties and companies need to understand what they need to do in order to achieve a point of critical mass beyond which there is a decisive movement in their favour-often a point described as an unstable equilibrium. In order to build up the momentum to achieve a critical mass, parties need to have a large proportion of die hard supporters which helps them turn other people into trying the product or policy. The BJP which once had the upper castes as their die hard supporters sadly seems to have lost the game this time with the BSP making inroads. The Congress has never had a die hard support base since their loss in 1989. This made it extremely difficult for both these parties to reach critical mass as they had to convert a larger number of undecided voters. The BSP and the SP however had their captive Dalit and Yadav votebanks that helped them reach critical mass easily.

The second important feature of the critical mass game is the extent of hate voters you have in the population. These are voters who are unwilling to try your party irrespective of your formulation. The BJP lost the game here as well with their Anti-Muslim rhetoric. Though the Congress didn't have too many hate voters, they were simply not seen as a viable alternative to the SP with the result being the BSP gaining. Both the Congress and the BJP need to introspect to see what they can do to change the rules of the game in their favour. The BJP can try a Centre-right approach for a start surely instead of clinging on to Hindutva.